Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 2.559626 2.976044 3.436965 3.984754 4.617869 5.326478 6.179705
2026-01-25 1.867768 2.414358 3.083752 3.962891 5.086394 6.473594 8.316466
2026-02-01 1.363867 1.924083 2.669713 3.732666 5.207396 7.179797 10.017899
2026-02-08 1.062606 1.614148 2.401652 3.604564 5.392603 7.949415 11.881981
2026-02-15 0.875565 1.418423 2.242271 3.578317 5.686181 8.879107 14.079848
2026-02-22 0.770887 1.322211 2.205339 3.715344 6.226196 10.227324 17.081089
2026-03-01 0.657109 1.187764 2.080964 3.684047 6.480824 11.148457 19.519163
2026-03-08 0.561091 1.064817 1.952530 3.618875 6.657891 11.950606 21.851650
2026-03-15 0.492738 0.978488 1.871876 3.620241 6.942720 12.961853 24.669930
2026-03-22 0.471369 0.975897 1.940921 3.903031 7.774714 15.046108 29.702841
2026-03-29 0.428538 0.923687 1.907278 3.982161 8.227376 16.481080 33.696341
2026-04-05 0.389965 0.873522 1.869395 4.045249 8.653191 17.911707 37.859762
2026-04-12 0.349065 0.813823 1.807534 4.059185 9.000958 19.273742 42.161728
2026-04-19 0.309884 0.751681 1.731974 4.034602 9.269411 20.522099 46.434285
2026-04-26 0.260768 0.658044 1.572717 3.799535 9.042291 20.692935 48.413320
2026-05-03 0.226081 0.592550 1.466670 3.668931 9.030113 21.327679 51.513400
2026-05-10 0.202499 0.550317 1.408430 3.642138 9.255696 22.526141 56.078388
2026-05-17 0.190829 0.536633 1.417356 3.781528 9.903448 24.791145 63.492435
2026-05-24 0.171801 0.499883 1.362392 3.749674 10.118156 26.046986 68.611816
2026-05-31 0.153533 0.461919 1.298216 3.683360 10.233870 27.073673 73.298518
2026-06-07 0.140230 0.435706 1.261300 3.684749 10.528919 28.592727 79.471109
2026-06-14 0.139046 0.445026 1.323783 3.972473 11.646878 32.396293 92.233853
2026-06-21 0.130279 0.429759 1.314248 4.052984 12.197598 34.764002 101.417330